Joseph Parker vs. Fabio Wardley
Mandatory Challenger Status: This bout is essentially a world title eliminator (Winner becomes mandatory challenger to the WBO Heavyweight Title). Joseph Parker is the WBO mandatory challenger for the undisputed heavyweight champion, Oleksandr Usyk. The winner of this fight will cement their position as the next-in-line for a shot at the undisputed crown or a vacant WBO World Title if Usyk is stripped.
The Ultimate Risk vs. Reward: For Parker, this is a huge risk, as a loss would shatter his hard-earned mandatory spot following a career resurgence that includes dominant wins over Deontay Wilder and Zhilei Zhang. For Wardley, it's a massive step up to world-level competition, and a win would instantly launch him into the elite tier of the heavyweight division.
Clash of Styles: It's a classic matchup of Parker's superior technical boxing skills and high-level experience versus Wardley's raw, explosive knockout power and never-quit mentality.
My Prediction: I expect Joseph Parker to outclass Wardley here. Wardley struggled against a much lesser opponent in Justis Huni his last fight and needed a late round miracle one punch KO to pull off a win. Parker is one of the more skilled heavyweights in the division and while he doesn’t have tons of power, I think he’ll get the KO here. Wardley isn’t enough of a technician to win on points so he’s going to need to commit to offense to knock Parker down. That’s where Parker can take advantage and punish Wardley for his mistakes.
One more thing: I’m also pulling for Parker just because he’s been waiting to fight Usyk for the heavyweight belts for a while now. He deserves a shot just for the call out video I linked below.
UFC Fight breakdowns
Tom Aspinall (C) vs. Ciryl Gane - Heavyweight Championship
Significance: This is a generational heavyweight title fight. Tom Aspinall represents the new breed of heavyweight—fast, powerful, and equally skilled on the feet and the ground. Ciryl Gane is a phenomenal technical striker with movement rarely seen in the division. The winner will hold the undisputed belt and be seen as the face of the division.
Favored: Tom Aspinall. The champion's speed, grappling threat, and explosive finishing ability make him a strong favorite, especially with Gane having shown vulnerabilities on the ground in the past.
Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern 2 - Women’s Strawweight Championship
Significance: This fight is for the vacant Women's Strawweight title, which was vacated by Zhang Weili. Both fighters are among the most decorated grapplers in the entire UFC, meaning one mistake could lead to a sudden submission finish. It is also a rematch, which adds a layer of complexity; Dern won the first meeting by decision in 2020.
Favored: Mackenzie Dern. Dern is typically favored in high-profile grappling matchups due to her high-level BJJ credentials, but this is expected to be a very close contest.
Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida - Heavyweight
Significance: This is a classic "Striker vs. Grappler" clash at heavyweight. Volkov needs to keep the fight on the feet to utilize his technical striking and distance management. Almeida, one of the division's best wrestlers and submission artists, needs to close the distance and take the fight to the mat. The winner will be a top contender at heavyweight.
Favored: Jailton Almeida. Almeida's relentless wrestling pressure often makes him a favorite against strikers who lack high-level takedown defense.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista - Bantamweight
Significance: This is a potential showcase for the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov, who is widely touted as a future champion. Mario Bautista is an extremely dangerous, high-pace contender who represents a huge step up in competition. A dominant win for Umar solidifies his status as the next title threat in the Bantamweight division.
Favored: Umar Nurmagomedov. His flawless record, elite grappling, and improving striking make him the favored prospect in most matchups.